lauantai 28. marraskuuta 2015

Deutsche Welle вывела Порошенко на чистую воду


Оксана Деревянко: Инцидент с Су-24 заставил задуматься – а кому выгодна ссора двух партнёров?



25.11.2015, 07:53


После известия о крушении бомбардировщика Су-24 министр иностранных дел Сергей Лавров отменил свой визит в Турцию. Инцидент с российским самолётом поставил под угрозу сотрудничество России и Турции, и заставил задуматься – а кому выгодна ссора двух давних партнёров? Об этом в рубрике «Личное мнение» рассуждает руководитель отдела бизнес-программ RT Оксана Деревянко. 

RT


25 ноября в Стамбуле должно было пройти очередное заседание Совместной группы стратегического планирования, действующей в рамках возглавляемого президентами России и Турции Совета сотрудничества высшего уровня. И главный вопрос, который стоял на повестке дня - это газопровод «Турецкий поток».


В декабре 2014 новость о начале проекта «Турецкий поток» была сенсационной. Владимир Путин сообщил об этом на совместном брифинге с Реджепом Эрдоганом. Тогда же стало известно об отказе России проводить «Южный поток» через территорию Болгарии. Четыре газопроводных нитки по дну Чёрного моря должны были доставлять газ из России в Турцию, а потом дальше, к берегам Греции и в другие страны Юго-Восточной Европы. Турция не только получала голубое топливо для собственных нужд, но и становилась мощным транзитёром газа.


Но такая самостоятельность Турции не понравилась в Вашингтоне. В мае 2015 на переговорах в Афинах специальный посланник Госдепартамента по международным энергетическим вопросам Амос Хокстайн открыто выступил против проекта «Турецкий поток» и поставок российского газа через Грецию в Евросоюз. В качестве альтернативы были предложен американский сжиженный газ и расширение трубопровода через Адриатику. А турецкие партнёры перешли к тактике затягивания и «выкручивания» рук российской стороне - к «Газпрому» стали предъявлять требования по дополнительным скидкам на газ. Проект стоимостью в €11,4 млрд, который предоставлял 10 тыс. новых рабочих мест находится на рассмотрении турецкой стороны с мая 2015 г. Впрочем, уже понятно, что Турции придётся пожертвовать собственными экономическими интересами в угоду старших товарищей по НАТО.


А если вернуться к вопросу о том, кому нужен этот конфликт между двух партнёров…Вы думаете, что военные успехи России вызывают раздражение у американских и европейских силовиков? Вы думаете, что Эрдогана не устраивают косвенные обвинения в контрабанде нефти? Всё это так. Но вот ещё несколько дополняющих деталей. В следующем году на энергетический рынок ЕС выйдет Иран, в США ближайшее время отменят ограничения на экспорт газа. И для них нужен покупатель. Так почему бы не вытеснить Россию из платежеспособной Европы? Или почему-бы не отобрать у «Росатома» двадцатимиллиардный контракт на строительство первой турецкой атомной станции «Аккую»? Кстати, реализация этого контракта тоже стояла на повестке дня рабочей группы в Анкаре, куда не полетел Лавров. Из-за инцидента с российским бомбардировщиком.

Ранее на эту тему:


Эксперт: Сбитый российский самолёт может быть ответом Турции на бомбардировки бензовозов ИГ


#Ударвспину: Пользователи соцсетей обсуждают сбитый Турцией Су-24


Крейсер «Москва»: кто будет прикрывать российские самолёты после инцидента с Су-24


Оригинал новости RT на русском:
https://russian.rt.com/article/132466

Pepe Escobar: Why Turkey Stabbed Russia in the Back


By: Pepe Escobar

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address:
"http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Why-Turkey-Stabbed-Russia-in-the-Back--20151126-0029.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english

 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Barack Obama
Russia’s and Turkey’s objectives in fighting the Islamic State group are diametrically opposed.
It's absolutely impossible to understand why the Turkish government would engage in the suicidal strategy of downing a Russian Su-24 over Syrian territory – technically a NATO declaration of war on Russia - without putting in context the Turkish power PLAY in northern Syria.

President Vladmir Putin said the downing of the Russian fighter jet was a “stab in the back.” So let’s see how facts on the ground allowed it to happen.

Ankara uses, FINANCES, and weaponizes a basket case of extremist outfits across northern Syria, and needs by all means to keep supply line corridors from southern Turkey open for them; after all they need to conquer Aleppo, which would open the way for Ankara’s Holy Grail: regime change in Damascus.

At the same time Ankara is terrified of the YPG – the Syrian Kurd People’s Protection Units – a sister organization of the leftist PKK. These must be contained at all costs.

So the Islamic State group – against which the United Nations has declared war - is a mere detail in the overall Ankara strategy, which is essentially to fight, contain or even bomb Kurds; support all manner of Takfiris and Salafi-jihadis, including the Islamic State group; and get regime change in Damascus.

Unsurprisingly, the YPG Syrian Kurds are vastly demonized in Turkey, accused of at least trying to ethnic cleanse Arab and Turkmen villages in northern Syria.


Yet, what the Syrian Kurds are attempting – and to Ankara’s alarm, somewhat supported by the U.S. - is to link what are for the moment three patches of Kurdish land in northern Syria.

A look at an imperfect Turkish map at least reveals how two of these patches of land (in yellow) are already linked, to the northeast. To accomplish that, the Syrian Kurds, helped by the PKK, defeated The Islamic State group in Kobani and environs. To get to the third patch of land, they need to get to Afryn. Yet on the way (in blue) there is a collection of Turkmen villages north of Aleppo.


The strategic importance of these Turkmen lands cannot be emphasized enough. It’s exactly in this area, reaching as much as 35 km inland, that Ankara wants TO INSTALL its so-called “safe zone,” which will be in fact a no-fly zone, in Syrian territory, ostensibly to house Syrian refugees, and with everything paid by the EU, which has already unblocked 3 billion euros, starting Jan. 1, via the European Commission (EC).

The NOW insurmountable obstacle for Turkey to get its no-fly zone is, predictably, Russia.

Using the Turkmen


Who are the Turkmen? Here we need to plunge back into ancient Silk Road history. There are roughly 200,000 Turkmen living in northern Syria. They are descendants of Turkmen tribals who moved into Anatolia in the 11th century.

Turkmen villages also sprout north of Idlib province, west of Aleppo, as well as north of Latakia province, west of Idlib. And it’s here where we find a rarely discussed bunch: a gaggle of Turkmen militias.

The myth of innocent Turkmen civilians being slaughtered by the “Assad regime” is, well, a myth. In Washington these militias are considered “moderate rebels” – as much as they have merged with all sorts of jihadi or jihadi-gobbled outfits, from the ever pliable construct FREE Syrian Army to Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. al-Qaida in Syria (which Vienna finally branded a terrorist group).

The bottom line is that Turkey and Russia simply cannot be part of the same coalition fighting the Islamic State group because their objectives are diametrically opposed.

Predictably, Turkish media hails all these Turkmen as “freedom fighters,” a la Ronald Reagan in the 1980s jihad Afghan. Turkish media spins the whole of their territory is controlled by an “innocent” Turkmen opposition, and not the Islamic State group. Not the Islamic State group, yes, but mostly al-Nusra, which is virtually the same thing.

For Russia, there’s no distinction, especially because a gaggle of Chechens, Uzbeks and Uyghurs (Chinese intel is on it) have sought harbor among these “moderates.” For Russia what matters is to smash any possibility of a future 900 km-long Jihad Highway between Aleppo and Grozny.

And that explains the Russian bombing of northern Latakia province. Ankara, predictably, went ballistic. The Foreign Ministry had even threatened Russia only a few days ago; the “Russian side’s actions were not a fight against terror, but they bombed civilian Turkmen villages and this could lead to serious consequences.”

Ankara directly supports Turkmen militias with humanitarian aid but what really counts are weapons; truck deliveries controlled by the MIT – Turkish intelligence.

This all fits into the ruling AKP party mythology of defending even pre-Ottoman populations; after all they always provided “good services” to Islam. Syrian Turkmen are as pious as the AKP leadership in Ankara.

The plot thickens


For Russia, the area known as Turkmen Mountain, or heights – which Turks call Bayirbucak - north of Latakia province, is a major target. Because that’s where we find the Weapon Highway – through which Ankara, side by side with the CIA, weaponizes these militias.

For Russia, any possibility of militias allied with Salafis and Salafi-jihadis trying to make a push to conquer overwhelmingly Alawite Latakia province is a red line because this would threaten Russia’s airbase at Khmeimim and eventually even the port of Tartus.

So essentially we have CIA weaponizing – those famous TOW anti-tank missiles - using a smuggling route through Turkmen territory which happens to be an al-Qaeda in Syria-run Ankara power base. This is prime territory for U.S., Turkey and Saudi Arabia to undermine Damascus, and most of all prime proxy war territory: NATO (U.S.-Turkey) against Russia.

The CIA spins the TOWs go to 45 “vetted” – thus “moderate rebel” - outfits. Nonsense; the weapons have been seized by the more experienced jihadis of al-Qaida in Syria, as well as the nebulae known as the Army of Conquest, supported by Saudi Arabia.

So to smash Jabhat al-Nusra and the Army of Conquest for good, Russia STARTED to bomb the Turkmen smugglers, which are hardly “moderates;” they are infiltrated all over by Turkish Islamo-fascists – such as the ones who machine-gunned Russian pilot Lt. Col Oleg Pershin as he was parachuting, a war crime according to the Geneva Conventions.

The stakes for Russia couldn’t be heavier because by using Turkmen tribals, Turkey is already planted deep inside northern Syria.

So expect Russia to substantially increase bombing of Turkmen areas – way beyond just a reprisal for the killing of the Russian pilot.

Elsewhere, Russia has plenty of other options – as in further weaponizing the YPG; that would allow them to finally take over the stretch of the border between Afryn and Jarablus that is still controlled by the Islamic State group. Ankara will be apoplectic if Syrian Kurds unite their so far unconnected territory in what they call Rojava.

The bottom line is that Turkey and Russia simply cannot be part of the same coalition fighting the Islamic State group because their objectives are diametrically opposed.

Istanbul-based historian Cam Erimtan outlines the big picture:

“Turkey’s new government took the reins on the same day the Russian jet was downed. And now the wily Prime Minister Davutoglu and the unwieldy President Erdogan are engaging in damage control and domestic mobilization, for the moment even dropping their favored rhetoric of Islamic solidarity and PLAYINGthe nationalist card to the full. Even though the military action will no doubt lead to huge gains in domestic popularity, the economic consequences have already started to be felt, with Russia curbing the import of Turkish goods. This may indicate that the AKP-led government solely acted as NATO’s lackey, ignoring the realities on the ground and reveling in boisterous grandstanding.”

The grandstanding won't last long because Russia will react in a cold, calculated, swift, multi-pronged and unexpected way to the downing of the Su-24.

The Russian missile cruiser Moskva – crammed with air defense systems – is NOW covering the whole region. Two S-400 systems will cover all of northwest Syria and the southern Turkish border. Russia is able to electronically jam the whole of southern Turkey. There’s no way Erdogan will have his EU-paid “safe zone” inside Syria unless he goes to war against Russia.

What’s certain is that Russia’s number one priority from now on is to smash Turkey’s extremist strategy in northern Syria for good.

Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst. He writes for RT, Sputnik and TomDispatch, and is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV SHOWS ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online, where he wrote the column The Roving Eye from 2000 to 2014. Born in Brazil, he's been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of "Globalistan" (2007), "Red Zone Blues" (2007), "Obama does Globalistan" (2009) and "Empire of Chaos" (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is "2030", also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015. He currently lives between Paris and Bangkok.







This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address:
"http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Why-Turkey-Stabbed-Russia-in-the-Back--20151126-0029.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english

Putin and Hollande go after Erdogan’s racket




Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst. He writes for RT, Sputnik and TomDispatch, and is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online. Born in Brazil, he's been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of "Globalistan" (2007), "Red Zone Blues" (2007), "Obama does Globalistan" (2009) and "Empire of Chaos" (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is "2030", also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015.
Published time: 27 Nov, 2015 11:44
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Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) and his French counterpart Francois Hollande speak after a news conference at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, November 26, 2015 © Alexander Zemlianichenko / Reuters
47
It all started with French President Francois Hollande, after the Paris attacks, having the temerity to advance the idea of France working together with Russia in the same coalition against ISIS/ISIL/Daesh in Syria.


Turkish President Recep Tayyip “no excuse” Erdogan thought NATO and Russia by this time would be at each other’s – Cold War 2.0 – nuclear throats, while Washington had brushed off Hollande’s idea with a cascade of platitudes and distortions.

And in less than 17 seconds, Prime Minister Ahmet “I ordered it myself” Davutoglu had authorized Turkey to shoot down a Russian Su-24 - only a few hours before Hollande met with President Obama.

So everything seemed to be falling into place. No chance of a new détente between the Atlanticist powers and NATO. On the contrary. Erdogan was sure he had sabotaged for good the Hollande-Putin face-to-face meeting in Moscow.

Not so fast, Sultan.


Read moreRussia deploys cutting-edge S-400 air defense system to Syrian base after Su-24 downing

In Moscow, Hollande and Putin confirmed that France and Russia will not be torn apart. The French leader declared: "What we agreed, and this is important, is to strike only terrorists and Daesh and to not strike forces that are fighting terrorism. We will exchange information about whom to hit and whom not to hit."

Now that unveils a thrilling horizon. In the “to hit” section we already find Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. al-Qaeda in Syria, which the Vienna negotiations have already branded as terrorists.

And considering that al-Nusra has gobbled up, co-opted or instrumentalized an array of Salafi outfits, “moderate” or otherwise, it won’t be hard for the Russians to convince the French these are all legitimate targets.

Also significant is that France will increase support to “rebels” fighting Daesh on the ground; that’s code for the YPG Syrian Kurds – one of Erdogan’s nemeses alongside the PKK.

So the Sultan’s risky shoot down investment is not paying too many dividends. What if Hollande came up with the same old scratched Obama CD, as in “Assad just go”, while Putin re-emphasized that “the fate of the president of Syria must stay in the hands of the Syrian people"? Everyone knows this is not the main priority of the Vienna negotiations. The main priority – as reiterated by the declaration of war inbuilt in UNSC resolution 2249 - is to smash ISIS/ISIL/Daesh.

And then the clincher, as Putin and Hollande reached a consensus: there will be a barrage of air strikes against the fuel tanker truck convoys transporting stolen Syrian oil across Daesh-controlled territory on the way to Turkey.

There goes in flames the profitable racket of ‘Sultan’s’ son Bilal Erdogan, a.k.a. ‘Erdogan Mini Me’, one of three shareholders of marine transportation corporation BMZ.

Send in the Sukhois!

Putin delivered a sarcastic cruise missile as he said it was "theoretically possible" that Ankara didn’t know about stolen Syrian oil entering Turkish territory from all points Daesh, but he added that was hard to imagine.

So leaving nothing to the imagination, one of Russia’s S-400 AA missile defense systems is already on combat duty at the Hmeymim airbase, and another one is on the way.

The ‘Sultan’ has been warned. From now on Russia has three major priorities:

1. A de facto no-fly zone already in effect south of the Turkish-Syrian border enforced by the S-400s. Ankara is so scared it grounded even owls and crows.

2. Already in effect; Russia will hit – hard - anything that suspiciously moves on every transport corridor in and out of Turkey. Turkish "humanitarian" convoys – carrying, what else, weapons – were pulverized in Azaz, which is only five kilometers from the Turkish border. And truck distribution points were also bombed near Raqqa.

3. Already in effect; Russia massively bombing the whole wide region where CIA ops run a cash and weapon highway to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and “innocent” Turkmen. Russia started carpet bombing the Jabal Turkmen area immediately after Russian pilot Lt. Col Oleg Pershin was rescued.

As I detailed here, there is absolutely nothing “innocent” about this whole war theatre crammed with a dozen al-Qaeda-friendly Turkmen militias.

And there’s more.

Not only Russia will smash the Turkmen/Chechen/Uzbek/Turkish Islamo-fascist militia connection in Latakia Province; it will most of all smash the Syrian stolen oil bonanza which benefits ‘Erdogan Mini Me’. Extra bonus: Smash the sea tankers as well. Francois Hollande abides.

So ‘Erdogan Mini Me’ better seek refuge in Dubai. But oops, that does not preclude an ”accident” after a wild night in town.

Highway to Hell

By now, Erdogan and ‘Mini Me’ must have gotten the message. They thought they had it covered when they took out the Su-24, which was not “violating” anything apart from the ultra-lucrative dirty oil extravaganza that profits, among others, ‘Mini Me’. Get rid of a sell oil for Daesh program, defying a NATO oil embargo? That’s an offer Russia cannot refuse.

At least two major questions are left unanswered. How come the US-led ‘Coalition of Dodgy Opportunists’ (CDO), in over a year, never – and the operative word is never – bombed any of the wheels in the Syrian stolen oil machine?

And how come no one among the CDO – Americans especially – did anything to prevent ‘Mini Me’ and others from actually funding the Daesh racket for so long? The CIA obviously knows all this and more, with geostationary satellites all over ‘Syraq’ working overtime.
Well, the CIA was too busy running the cash and weapons highway through Turkmen Mountain to be disturbed by a mere oil smuggling op.

But now Russia is going after all of them; the CIA weapon highway, the Turkish-enabled Jihadi highway, the Daesh-to-Turkey stolen oil highway. Sultan and ‘Mini Me’, get ready to embark on a highway to hell.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

The Turkish nightmare for Europe and US



Published time: 27 Nov, 2015 07:10



Turkey's attack on Russian jet is foreign policy nightmare - Austrian ex-chancellor


Published time: 27 Nov, 2015

The terror alert is spreading across Europe, engendering fear and resentment. While police forces sweep the European cities in an attempt to get to Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) sleeper cells, debate rages over how to deal with incoming refugees. Tensions are running high in countries trying to combat a common enemy. Is a unified anti-IS coalition possible? Can Europe protect its borders? And how do you stop the idea of jihadism infecting young minds? We ask former chancellor and foreign minister of Austria: Wolfgang Schussel is on Sophie&Co today.

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Sophie Shevardnadze: Wolfgang Schussel former Chancellor and foreign minister of Austria, welcome to the show, it's really great to have you with us. Now, a NATO country, Turkey, has shot down a Russian bomber in Syria, claiming it strayed into Turkish airspace. When a Turkish plane was shot for violating Syrian airspace, mr. Erdogan dubbed it an "attack with no excuse" - now, when a Russian plane is shot by Turkey in similar circumstances, it's an "appropriate self-defence". How this ambiguous stance of a NATO member and an EU candidate is viewed in Europea? Why is Turkey changing its stance when it feels like it? What's European take on that?

Wolfgang Schussel: I think it's a nightmare incident, what happened a few days ago. This is exactly what some military experts warned about - there were repeated warning that there could be a clash between two nations in this already overcrowded Syrian sky. I think, what is needed is more cooperation and coordination. And, I think, the response of Turkey, even if there would be some incidents, let's say, for 2-5 seconds crossing a border land, it's not an appropriate reaction for that. So, I think, what is needed is a military coordination in this very disputed area.

SS: But also, the way we look at it, this incident with the fighter jet has only highlighted Turkey's dubious behaviour towards ISIS. I mean, the alleged buying of smuggled oil from terrorists, allowing militant movement back and forth over the border and attacking Kurds who are fighting ISIS. Why has this been tolerated by members of the anti-ISIS coalition for so long?

WS: I think it was criticised. Turkey can do much more to fight ISIS, but they are concentrated to fight or to separate or to isolate the Turkish fighters. The Peshmerga, as you know, is a staunch ally against ISIL or ISIS, and Turkey could also do more to stop the influx of foreign recruits a route to Syria. You mentioned the oil smuggling... so I think, a lot can be done, also to stop refugees, uncontrolled flow of refugees from Turkey to Europe. So I think Turkey should do more and on the summit of the EU and Turkey, I'm sure a lot of our member-states will ask Turkey to do much more.

SS: So you think on that summit Turkey is going to be asked by the allies to get its anti-terror act together? Because, "criticising" and actually pressuring Turkey to do this are two different things.

WS: Yeah, but you know, summit is a diplomatic effort to bring up different ideas and to coordinate the political actions, and I think it's an important meeting. I would not underestimate the impetus and a potential influx on the Turkish policy. I hope it will work.

SS: NATO said in October it is ready to defend Turkey against Russia. It now has taken a much more cautious tone. Why the change?

WS: It should not be, so to say, confrontation of NATO and Russia. I think what is needed is direct talks between Turkey and Russia and I hope, I got some information that there's an already planned meeting between Foreign Minister Lavrov and the Turkish foreign minister. They should discuss it, and, anyway, there is a strong need to coordinate military efforts. If Russia - and I would support it - would become a member of the coalition against ISIS and ISIL, there's a need to coordinate the actions, the moves, the targets, et cetera.

SS: Now, while the anti-terror campaign in Syria is ramping up, in Europe operations following the Paris attacks are also in full swing. All of Austria's neighbors - Italy, Hungary, Germany - they're on high terror alert in case of another attack. Why isn't Austria on such an alert? Is Austria confident it's safe, I mean, feeling no need to raise the threat level? Is Austria equipped to handle such a threat?

WS:I think, everybody is on alert and rightly so: because nobody can feel safe and secure or exempt from terror attacks from Al-Qaeda, Daesh, ISIL, ISIS - call it what you want. I think what we learned during the last years, months, or weeks or days is that nothing is guaranteed. We're fighting for our way of life, to entertain us, to love, to listen to music, to meet, to speak freely. This is an attack against all of us, an attack against our values. So I think we all have to be united and no one should think he or she is exempt from being a target of these terrorists. This is our common enemy, and we should also prioritise our action. In the moment, the most urgent priority is to fight against ISIS, and then the rest should be settled. Political, diplomatic effort to settle something, a diplomatic or political solution for Syria - that's for sure, this is needed, but now the most important priority is to fight the Islamic forces.

SS: BVT, the Austrian counter-terror agency is saying Austria is home to some 250 Islamist extremists. The Brussels’ suburb of Molenbeck was a safe haven for terrorists for a long time. Why are well-off places like Brussels or Vienna are becoming hubs of global jihadism? Why do they feel so comfortable and safe, operating from these places? What's your opinion?

WS: I don't think that Vienna is a safe place. I really trust our police and our intelligence. They have a lot of information about some suspected fundamentalists. Of course, you cannot stop someone leaving the country. I'm not sure if the numbers are right - 150 or 200 people leaving Austria, and from other countries as well, but we are very alert of those who are coming back. I think we have a very effective network of police and intelligence.

SS: But, you know, still after the Paris attacks you can't help but wonder that the counter-terror agencies can't really contain the threat the way we would have liked to. How do you keep tabs on thousands of potential extremists anyways? Especially, when there is a community they can blend into easily?

WS: We have, normally, a relatively good contact and network with the different communities - with Islamic community... They are reasonable people, they are absolutely against these terrorist or these jihadists or these extreme groupings - we have, by the way, invented and decided on a specific Islamic law, which is quite impressive, it could be an example for other European countries, to stop financing from outside, to stop training and teaching imams from outside, it should be European Islam, which we have to teach to the young imams, and we have to control what is going on in our mosques and the Muslim schools - and I think we are quite effective on that, because Austria has a good tradition. Since more than 100 years Islam is a recognised religion in Austria, so until now the things are calm, but we are on alert, this is true.

SS: Now, once again, the BVT said systematic efforts are being made within Austria to radicalize and recruit people for the war in Syria. Why are European countries incapable of preventing this trend?

WS: The problem is, we know that some people left. The real problem would be if they are to come back - then, so to say, it is a crime, leaving the country to fight in Syria or in Iraq is a crime, according to Austrian law. We are very aware that we have to protect ourselves and our cities, and so there will be no tolerance at all for these fundamentalists, no doubt about it.

SS: But I am talking about the recruitment - why are people going to fight for ISIS from Europe, from well-off families, from good backgrounds, you know. You have generations of Muslims whose parents were never radical and now they are super-radical, and they're easily recruitable by these terrorists? What is this trend that the European countries can't fight?

WS: Because this cannot be done easily top-down. What is important is to have the family, to have the peer groups, to have other young people, to have the mosques, the reasonable people convincing these potentially interested young guys to leave the country that it's not true. We were quite successful, we had some successes on that, to keep people who were originally interested to leave the country and to fight in Syria - to keep them in Austria. But of course, there's no 100% guarantee. This would be absolutely silly if I would pretend that it is possible to protect 100% of these young guys not to fight in Syria. This is a kind of "youth cult", this is a problem for me. I see that there's a tendency that some Islamic groups are inventing, with the Internet, with rap and all these things that are kind of "youth culture", and this is quite attractive for some of them. So we have to be very cautious.

SS: After the Paris terror attacks, gun sales spiked in Austria, businesses are running out of shotguns to sell. Are Austrians buying guns because citizens don't trust government to protect them?

WS: I think trust deficit could be much dangerous than budget deficits, and I think, to restore trust means that we have to show some successes. We have to show that we are able to protect the external border of Europe. We are able to deliver some jihadists to the court, to bring them to justice. We have to show that we are able, not only in Austria, but in all European countries, to stop potential attackers from finding their targets and fulfilling their negative and criminal aspirations. So, it is important to show and to deliver.

SS: The head of the Austrian right-wing Freedom Party has called for a European island prison for suspected terrorists, something like America's Guantanamo. Do you think this will help?

WS: No. I think, the prison is not the right answer. What is important in my opinion is to protect the external border. I think, now, it's the time to create this kind of a European border force, protecting and guarding, 8 thousand or 10 thousand of the land border and 14 thousand sea border. And what Americans said, by the way, for 60 years, it was not the prison, but they had Ellis Island and Ellis Island was the place where those people who wanted to immigrate into the U.S. had to have the procedure to ask and to answer some questions from the authorities, and in the end they could enter - or not. I think, something like that is important, it is necessary - not a prison, but a kind of Ellis Island for the EU.

SS: So, do I understand correctly that you're worried about terrorists entering Europe posing as asylum seekers? Because, are European border agencies capable of screening all arrivals at this point?

WS: Not now, not now, you are completely right, this is the real question, and what I propose is a new agency, a new European external border force. This is necessary, the national governments alone cannot do it - look at Greece, they had, per day, an influx of 3-4 thousand immigrants, or refugees, coming to the Greek island, and on some weekends more than 30,000 people came to Greece. I think, there's a need to support Greece or Italy and to help to establish a kind of a common European external border force.

SS: So this prototype for Ellis Island, where would you propose to have it?

WS: This is not up to me...

SS: No, but you know, I think it's a great idea, where would you put it in ideal world?

WS: This was a proposal by, I think, Naguib Sawiris, an Egyptian, who proposed he will by 2-3 today not inhabited islands in Greece and will install the flats and the apartments and houses, and he could organise infrastructure for such a thing. It needs, of course, the green light from the Greek government and the support and cooperation from European institutions. I think it's a great idea.

SS: You think European institutions will go after something like that, because they haven't really echoed anything after the proposal?

WS: No, I think the first idea to create hotspots is close to this idea, and I think if we develop the idea a little bit further in this direction, what Sawiris has proposed - why not? I think it would be a great success!

SS: Back to the border control. Systematic border checks of migrants only began last week. What do you do about those who have already entered the EU? What should be Austria doing?

WS: To give the numbers, according to my knowledge, but I think the facts are quite right. Austria alone had, from the beginning of this year, around 800,000 people, crossing our borders - some were in transfer to Germany or later then, to Scandinavia, but 100,000 stayed in Austria and applied for asylum. This is a huge burden, and, honestly, I'm proud of Austrian civil society and the authorities, that without any incident, without any violent attack, without any crimes committed in such difficult times, we made and we succeeded with these things. Germany, for instance, until the end of this year will have probably more, around or more, than 1,000,000 refugees. So, this is something which is an extraordinary burden for everybody. We can do it, we can manage it now, but if this is to continue in the next years to come, it is impossible. So, therefore, again, we need to close and to protect and to guard our external borders, leaving open, of course, a legal channel for asylum-seekers who deserve support and aid from our side.

SS: But you know what many are saying, right? Many are saying: "all of these measures are great and screening incoming migrants is also a great idea, but why does it have to happen only after so many innocent people died in Paris?"

WS: No, this is not true. The fact is that we were discussing this for the whole summer before the Paris tragic events happened. We had 2 or 3 European Council meetings, and much more of ministers' meetings, of Interior, Foreign Affairs, et cetera. No, this is not true. What is needed, of course, is a coordinate effort to support and to finance the UN food program. To support Lebanon and Jordan, and of course, use Turkey with the refugee camps that are already established. And, of course, it is also necessary to help Greece, because this country is in a lot of economic troubles and, as well, needs the support of the EU. So, we are working along these lines, but of course, it takes some time to coordinate 28 member-states. It was easier with 6 member states, with 12 member states - today it is a little bit more complicated. But, we can do it. We have to.

SS: EU border agency, Frontex, has no access to operational intelligence. How is it expected, or how is it possible to trace terror suspects?

WS: But this is not, exactly, the job of Frontex. Frontex has a different task and a different obligation. Frontex is, so to say, to guard, but with very limited means - this is also a kind of a voluntary - it's an agency, but so to say, the means, the instruments, the financing, the budget is not up to the challenge today. This has all declined from the ‘sunshine times’ when you had, let's say, several hundreds or several thousand asylum-seekers per month. Now, alone in November, we had two, three hundred thousand asylum seekers all over Europe. This is impossible, this year we will have probably between 2 and 3 mn asylum-seekers in Europe. So, Frontex must improve its mandate, must get an appropriate financing out of the EU budget, not by voluntary means. This requires a lot of decision making process in the next months and weeks to come. I hope it is possible to break over the winter time to have it in spring.

SS: A lot of people blame the Paris attacks on how the French security services and intelligence services work in general and the powers that they have. Austrian intelligence also faces a number of legal restrictions in their work. For instance, they aren't allowed to search for social network profiles for evidence, even though, in this day and age terrorists use social networks extensively. Should security services be given broader powers? What do you think?

WS: We were discussing this at my party, the People's Party, which is the government party. It is proposing to strengthen and to force a little bit, not a little bit, but in a significant way, the powers of police and intelligence. There's also the need to cooperating between the intelligence and the protection forces all over Europe. As you have seen in Paris, the people were planning the whole thing maybe in Syria, operating from Belgium, doing the crime in Paris. So, there's need for everybody inside the EU and outside the EU to share intelligence, to work together, to be much more effective. People expect that.

SS: After 9\11, the U.S. responded with the Patriot Act, coupled with extensive NSA surveillance. The Americans have only missed one attack since then. Is Europe ready for a move like that? Will Europeans accept that?

WS: That's a good question. I'm not sure, because the people, the electorate is used to the golden times - no security, or minor security threats, defence budgets went down, if you look at the last two decades, the Americans increased military budget, Russia increased military budget and China, ninefold, increased military budget, and European Union decreased by minus 20% - this means, in real terms, they halved, they cut the budget by a half. Numbers of soldiers are reduced... So, I think, there's a need for Europe to wake up and to take the common security policy very serious. There's a need to take foreign policy and defence matters very seriously.

SS: Chancellor Werner Faymann said measures like shutting down borders in the wake of migrant crisis will lead to chaos, and are a quite capitulation of the EU. At same time, Austria is planning a barbed wire fence on the border with Slovenia. Is there no way to stick to the EU's ideals of free movement in this situation?

WS: We have two options - either we protect the external border and then you can keep the Schengen zone and the borders within the Schengen zone and within the EU open. This is my priority. I think, most of the people would agree, 90% are absolutely in favor of that. Or, if it is not possible, if we aren't able and willing in delivering protection of our external border, then the alternative is to protect your own country. This would lead to a cacophony and a follow up of fences and fences and fences, which is not good because this is the end of an open area within the Schengen zone. But this is not my priority, and I think most of the European leaders are of the same opinion. It is a need to keep the borders open, but if we want to do that, we have to establish a common protection of the external border.

SS: Thank you so much, we were talking to Wolfgang Schussel , ex-Chancellor and Foreign Minister of Austria, discussing the way the EU is dealing with the fallout of the Paris attacks and its other challenges. It's been great talking to you, that's it for this edition of Sophie&Co, I will see you next time.

tiistai 24. marraskuuta 2015

Turkey good example of West’s duplicity towards ISIS'




John Wight has written for newspapers and websites across the world, including the Independent, Morning Star, Huffington Post, Counterpunch, London Progressive Journal, and Foreign Policy Journal. He is also a regular commentator on RT and BBC Radio. He wrote a memoir of the five years he spent in Hollywood, where he worked in the movie industry prior to becoming a full time and activist and organizer with the US antiwar movement post-9/11. The book is titled Dreams That Die and is published by Zero Books. John is currently working on a book exploring the role of the West in the Arab Spring. You can follow him on Twitter @JohnWight1
Published time: 24 Nov, 2015 12:20Edited time: 24 Nov, 2015 15:00
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A Su-34 multifunctional strike bomber of the Russian Aerospace Force takes off from the Hemeimeem Air Base in the Syrian province of Latakia. © Dmitriy Vinogradov / Sputnik


In shooting down a Russian jet operating over Syria, Turkey’s nefarious role in the Syrian conflict has intensified. It also presents a damning indictment of the West's seriousness in confronting extremism and terrorism.
TrendsIslamic State, Russian anti-terror op in Syria

READ MORE: Russian Su-24 fighter jet shot down over Syria - Russian MoD (VIDEO)

In the aftermath of the spate of ISIS atrocities – first the downing of the Russian passenger plane, Metrojet Flight 7K9268 over the Sinai at the end of October, killing all 224 on board, followed by the killing of 43 civilians in Beirut in a suicide bomb attack, and most recently the slaughter of 130 people in Paris in multiple suicide bombings and shootings – we now know who is serious about confronting this medieval death cult and who is not.

More, we are starting to uncover those who speak the language of anti-terrorism while in practice working to facilitate and support it.

Turkey is a key culprit in this regard. A murky relationship has long existed between Ankara, ISIS, al Nusra, and other jihadi groups operating in Syria. Indeed, on the most basic level, without their ability to pass back and forth across the Turkish border at will, those groups could not have operated as easily and effectively as they had until Russia intervened.

However, according to a report by David L Phillips of Columbia University, Turkey’s support for extremist groups operating in Syria, including ISIS has been even more extensive than previously thought. Drawing on a wide variety of sources, Phillips reveals that the Turkish government, a member of NATO and a key Western ally, has been involved in helping ISIS with recruitment, training, and has provided it with intelligence and safe havens and sanctuary. Most recently it has been exposed as a major customer for stolen Syrian oil, supplied by the terrorist group.

Perhaps the most damning evidence contained in the report when it comes to Turkey’s role, is in relation to its actions and inaction when it came to the siege of the Kurdish town of Kobani on the Syrian-Turkish border in September and October of 2014.

As Phillips reveals: “Anwar Moslem, Mayor of Kobani, said on September 19, 2014: ‘Based on the intelligence we got two days before the breakout of the current war, trains full of forces and ammunition, which were passing by north of Kobani, had an-hour-and-ten-to-twenty-minute-long stops in these villages: Salib Qaran, Gire Sor, Moshrefat Ezzo. There is evidence, witnesses, and videos about this. Why is ISIS strong only in Kobani's east? Why is it not strong either in its south or west? Since these trains stopped in villages located in the east of Kobani, we guess they had brought ammunition and additional force for the ISIS.’ In the second article on September 30, 2014, a CHP delegation visited Kobani, where locals claimed that everything from the clothes ISIS militants wear to their guns comes from Turkey.”

Militant Islamist fighters © Stringer / Reuters

The world will never forget how, during the siege of Kobani, as its Kurdish defenders mounted a heroic defense of the town against thousands of ISIS fighters, armed with tanks and artillery, Turkish tanks and troops sat just over the border and did nothing to intervene.

Likewise, no one will forget that earlier this year Turkey carried out airstrikes against those same Kurdish volunteers of the PKK/YPG within Syria, while depicting them as terrorists. Turkey’s oppression of its Kurdish minority going back many years is of course a matter of record.

President Erdogan and his government has undeniably been a key in the destabilization of Syria, doing its utmost to foment regime change. As with the Saudis and other Gulf monarchies, before Russia’s intervention Turkey was hovering over Syria as a vulture hovers over a dying animal, waiting for it to perish before descending to feed on its carcass.

The fact that Turkey remains a key Western ally exposes the moral high ground from which Washington and its allies have lectured Russia over its role in Syria as nothing more than a dung-heap of hypocrisy.

If the West was serious about confronting terrorism, was serious about returning stability to a region it has helped to set on fire, it would reconsider its close ties to both Turkey and the Saudis, whose governments between them have been wading in the river of blood they have helped shed these past four years. Turkey’s claim that the Russian military aircraft it shot down had encroached on its airspace and ignored multiple warnings should be treated with the credibility it deserves, especially when we recall that prior to Russia’s participation in the conflict, Turkey’s violation of Syrian airspace and the Syrian border was happening on a regular basis.

With Russia’s presence in Syria has put paid to Erdogan’s objective of toppling the Syrian government, we begin to discern its efforts to enlist the support of NATO in putting pressure on Russia to desist. It also helps to explain why the West continues to refuse President Putin’s call for cooperation and unity in the effort to eradicate ISIS and other extremist groups massacring and slaughtering their way across the country, with the intention of turning it into a mass grave.

In the wake of the recent spate of ISIS atrocities unleashed against Russian, Lebanese, and French civilians, the grounds for refusing to enter such an alliance are as indefensible as Turkey’s role in the conflict and its most recent action in shooting down a Russian aircraft.

As the man said: “Those who sow the wind shall reap the whirlwind.”

Путин игнорирует Катар



http://cont.ws/post/152360




Путин игнорирует Катар. Утечка с иранского форума стран-экспортеров газа


Геополитика

ИГИЛ и терроризм, Ближний Восток, Операция РФ в Сирии


Ни для кого не секрет, что вчера, 23 ноября в столице Ирана - Тегеране, прошла встреча лидеров стран-экспортеров газа.


В эту организацию входят 14 стран, среди которых есть Россия, Иран, а также геополитический противник Ирана, и по всей видимости враг России - Катар.





Напомню интересный факт, что штаб-квартира "газового ОПЕК" находится в столице Катара - Дохе, но когда выбирали, то было два города-претендента: Доха и Санкт-Петербург. Выбрали Доху. В тот период отношения России и Катара были практически добрососедскими. Обе страны хотели сформировать газовый альянс и отвязать цены на газ от цены на нефть. Но минуло много дней. Катар стал врагом.



Стало известно, что после резкой активизации России в Сирии, а также после заявления Путина "ничто не забыто, никто не забыт", Катар стал судорожно искать встречи с Москвой.


Причем искать ее стали немного другие люди, не те, которые, как считается связаны с террористами ИГИЛ и взрывом аэробуса над Синаем.


Один из оргкомитета иранского форума сообщил на условиях анонимности иранскому изданию, что Катар четырежды присылал протокольную заявку на встречу с Владимиром Путиным в рамках форума.


На все заявки был дан ответ, что Владимир Путин не обладает свободным временем для встречи с эмиром Катара.


Так Катар еще не посылал никто.


Вообще, если посмотреть не со стороны эмоций, а со стороны прагматики, то есть два варианта, почему так произошло.


Первый вариант, что Владимир Путин действительно не обладает свободным временем, а в связи с этим отказался от встречи.


Второй вариант, что Россия считает Катар причастным к теракту на Синае.


Если это второй вариант, то я думаю возмездие простым игнорированием не ограничится. Путин дал весьма недвусмысленные намеки на камеру. После этого Катар и зашевелился, словно горох на сковородке.


В любом случае, есть факт, Россия игнорирует попытки Катара провести переговоры. Это не с проста. Следим за ситуацией дальше.

EP. And now - a synopsis on the Russian plane hit in Syria by Turkey





1. The russian plane on a battle flight in Syria was shot down by a turkish destroyer F16 in the province of Latakia in the Syrian air space. The plane was struck from behind and below with no visual contact of the pilots.


2. Even if the russian bomber had touched the turkish border - it is no reason at all to strike it down forcefully. It is all a routine practice. Usually such plane is warned, escorted and warned again by special signals of the wings, giving pilots some mark of "breaking the line." In case of deep penetration into the territory of another country, the plane will be brought down to the ground by a team of destroyers. But not shot down. There is no need for that. There was no threat at all. The turkish authorities knew pretty well everything the plane was doing.



The turkish authorities claim that the plane had been warned audially 10 times over 5 minutes. That is nonsense and a lie. The plane in question could had been in the air space of Turkey (turning or coming out of a move) for a minute at best - actually for 17 seconds, according to americans. If the russian pilot of the bomber had been on line with his commander, he wouldn't have heard any warning at all. And in what language? Russian? Turkish?  English? Audial warnings are not used in cases like that.



The latest results of objective surveillance of both Russian and Syrian military observants and air-defend forces confirmed that there were no any warning audio signals from turkish air-forces at all. And the plane  had 
never touched the turkish border. And the turkish destroyer was actually in the air space of Syria.





The Turkish version of the flight.

There is also a special telephone line between coordinated commandment of Russian-Syrian forces and Turkey. Never ever been used.


The air forces of Israel are breaking the border line of Lebanon quite systematically to bomb Syrian governmental military äirports, never to be hit down by Lebanese destroyers. It is not the procedure.



3. The russian bomber had never actually crossed the air borders of Turkey. This is a confirmed fact now.


4. The bomber is very limited in quick manouvres and is an easy target.


5. Turkish destroyers routinely escort and observe the work of the russian bombers in the region of the Syrian-Turkish border. By expert opinion the bomber in question had been escorted and observed closely. More than that, all marks show that is was ambushed.


6. The Russian plane had been hit at the Syrian territory. This is unprecedented.


7. All this means only that the plane of the Russian Airforces had been hit deliberately.


A very expensive plane of no threat to Turkey. Both pilots (by the latest news not yet confirmed) were shot down by the local terrorists after catapulting from the plane. (One pilot shot down in the air after catapulting, one rescuer from the helicopter killed.)


8. This act is taken as a DIRECT ACT OF AGRESSION AGAINST RUSSIA AND SYRIA. Now Syria will have to (in the worst scenario) to fight against Turkey as an open supporter of the terrorists in Syria.




9. This puts Turkey in a very difficult position. It is not ready to fight financially. It doesn't have any exit from this situation. No explanations, no "sorry, mistakes", nothing of that can be used. Only sincere confession and begging for forgiveness with compensations. But to do that Erdogan has no means - human, political or financial. Erdogan is a political corpse. And Turkey is now openly on the side of the terrorists.


10. Americans have immediately distanced themselves from the incident, declaring that this is a matter of national initiative of Turkey and Turkey alone. It has nothing to do with the anti-terrorist operation and no blame can be pointed upon the US or the NATO forces of the coalition in Syria.


But Turkey is a NATO member. And the US and NATO commanders were informed according to the mutual memorandum about all moves of the russian air forces. They informed Turkey on the jet's whereabouts. 


The USA declaration is a provocation and a suggested pretence for a war between Russia and Turkey. The situation is ideal for States, now they can again bomb whatever they choose and support whoever they prefer. The situation is complexed with all those "moderate butchers" and even "more moderate butchers", but also with questions of nationality - curds and turkmen (the syrian turks) as well as religious matters - shiias, christians, sunni, esides, alavites etc... Lovely!



11. There is a lot of reasons for this kind of provocation:


- there are lots of military groups in Syria supported by Turkey directly and indirectly - the Syrian turks (its radical part) is one of them; other groups in this territory are IGIL and JEBHAT AN-NUSRA (a filial of AL-KAIDA)


- the turkish oil-dealers are actively involved in illegal IGIL oil trading - the place of the Russian bomber hit down is one knot of the border paths to Turkey for oil containers and terrorists, going into Syria or to rest camps and to receive medical help into Turkey. This is a logistic centre of the terrorists for transporting arms, provision, money. Very important for Turkey.


The majority of the terrorists in this region of Syria are IGIL mercenaries from Russia (the North Caucases). According to the latest info one of the two russian helicopters searching for the pilots was destroyed by the local terrorists and the pilots were shot dead in the air after catapulting from the hit plane. (Still not confirmed.)

Is confirmed now: one pilot killed, the terrorists danced over his body, the other was rescued by a helicopter team - one helicopter was downed and one team member killed.



- the Russian bombers destroy highways and thousands of oiltrailers, cutting off channels of financing the IGIL and cutting Turkey off the cheap illigal oil and profits from the trade. Financial situation of Turkey is very complex and is hardened by millions of Syrian refugees.


- the kurds of Syria have consolidated their efforts with Russian and Syrian governmental forces to fight IGIL together


- Turkey hates and bombs syrian kurds on its own and on all the other soils. The perspective of forming a Kurdish state is unbearable for Turkey. (I wonder why?)


12. But the result of this low and disgusting provocation will be inevitably NEGATIVE for Turkey.


Turkey will lose its chance with the Turkey Stream (this is good for Saudites and Qatar, and Iran).


Turkey loses favorable approach from Russia and friendly ties with it.


Turkey loses Russia on the Turkish market. (This will boumerang upon turks in Russia and on their relations with russians). Turkey loses the Russian market.


Russia will consider restraining its gas deliveries to Turkey.


Turkey loses all its Russian tourists. (This is good for all the tourist countries in the Middle East and Northern Africa). The Foreign Ministry of RF has already declared bans on airtransport and tourist streams to Turkey. This is very good for the USA - economical strangulation of the partner is the most reliable one.


Reputation loss - more specifically - reputation change - instead of a country fighting TERRORISTS within the US and NATO coalition Turkey has transformed into a country, SUPPORTING TERRORISTS. Now it is a country, who acts stupidly, unjustly and unpredictably, being lying all this time to everybody - this is an oficial side of it. Unofficially we have another lapdog, obeying orders of the Master, even harming itself in the process.


The reputation of an independant state, not to speak of a regional state of influence, is gone, destroyed, vanished.


The hit is considered as a low stab in the back, as the russian pilots obviously didn't expect a full scale attack on themselves. COULDN'T BELIEVE IT.

Turkey loses all the benefits of good relations with Russia and chooses its side - the side of US, fighting all against all.



The Syrian refugees are now in a very difficult situation.



The worst scenario for Turkey will be an armed conflict on its border with no chance to win. But Russia has already declared that it will not be engaged in any armed conflict with Turkey.


This cruel act of Turkey has now placed the alliance into a very tricky position. Standing by Turkey NATO will prove once again to be supporting terrorists instead of fighting them. 



Elena Pyyhtiä


24 November 2015



















Lähettänyt Elena Pyyhtia 49 minutes ago

 

Фронтовой бомбардировщик Су-24М

1. Удар по российскому бомбардировщику, находившемуся на боевом вылете в провинции Латакия, был нанесен снизу, при отсутствии визуального контакта пилотов.

2. Даже если самолет задел воздушную границу Турции - это не повод его сбивать. Это обычная практика. Самолет предупреждают, сопровождают и качают крыльями, давая понять, что "чиркнул черту". В случае глубокого проникновения на территорию другого государства, самолет принудительно сажают. Все. Предупредить 10 раз в течение 5 минут - блеф. Самолет мог находиться на территории Турции (с возможным выходом из поворота или маневром) не более 1 минуты. Если пилот был на связи со своим командованием, то услышать предупреждения турецких пилотов (на русском?) он не мог.
По последним данным объективного контроля российских и сирийских ВВС никаких попыток связи турецких ввс зафиксировано не было. Более того, турецкий истребитель нарушил границу Сирии. 
Существует также и телефонная линия связи между турецким командованием ввс и российско-сирийскими. Никогда не использовалась. 


Израильская авиация, нарушая территориальные границы Ливана, летает на бомбежки правительственных объектов в Сирии, и Ливан их не сбивает.

3. По последним данным САМОЛЕТ РФ ГРАНИЦЫ ТУРЦИИ НЕ НАРУШАЛ.

4. Самолет не способен к быстрому маневру.

5. Турецкие самолеты рутинно сопровождают и отслеживают работу самолетов РФ в районе сопредельной границы Сирии и Турции. Есть мнение, что самолет отслеживали.

6. Самолет РФ был сбит на сирийской территории. Это неслыханно.

7. Это значит, что САМОЛЕТ ВКС РФ БЫЛ СБИТ СОЗНАТЕЛЬНО.
Очень дорогой самолет (спокойно! без эмоций! это все-таки анализ.). Погиб пилот (по предварительным данным. Второй взят в плен. Какой-то там "армией десятого побережья". Их жизнями и телами уже торгуют. Упаси их Бог от видео в сети...)

8. Это действие расценивается исключительно как ПРЯМОЙ АКТ АГРЕССИИ ПРОТИВ РОССИИ. И Сирии. Теперь Сирия вынуждена (в худшем случае) воевать еще и с Турцией.


Дым на месте падения самолета Су-24 на границе Сирии и Турции

9. Это ставит Турцию в очень трудное положение. Она финансово не готова воевать. Но и выхода из положения у  нее почти нет. Никаких объяснений, ошибки, несчастного случая быть не может. Только признание провокации, униженные извинения и компенсация. На это у Эрдогана тоже нет средств - ни человеческих, ни политических, ни финансовых. Эрдоган - труп.

10. Американцы тут же открестились от провокации и заявили, что это личное дело Турции (член НАТО), и это теперь между Турцией и Россией - то есть, сталкивает лбами Россию и Турцию, устраняясь от ответственностиИ ПРЕДЛАГАЯ ИНЦИДЕНТ КАК ПОВОД ДЛЯ ВОЙНЫ.
Для американцев ситуация идеальная - они вновь могут бомбить, кого хотят, а общая путаницы с умеренными палачами и очень умеренными только усугубляется национальными вопросами - курды, туркмены - и религиозными - христиане, шийя, сунниты, езиды, алавиты, .... Lovely! Прелестно!

Бомбардировщик Су-24. Архивное фото.
11. Причин для такой провокации множество:
- в Сирии есть много военных группировок, которые Турция поддерживает прямо и косвенно. - Туркмены Сирии (радикальная часть) - одна из таких группировок.
Турецкие нефтетрейдеры активно торгуют контрабандной нефтью ИГ - место сбития самолета РФ - на территории, которая является узлом проходов на территорию Турции.
Через этот узел проходят машины с нефтью и боевики-террористы, которые проходят на территорию Турции для лечения и отдыха в лагерях.

Большинство боевиков на этой территории - выходцы из РФ. (По последним данным один из двух поисковых вертолетов РФ был уничтожен  с земли в процессе поисков пилотов.)

- Российские самолеты бомбят трассы и колонны автомобилей с нефтью, обрубая каналы финансирования ИГ и лишая Турцию дешевой нефти и заработков на ней. Экономическое положение Турции подорвано миллионами беженцев на ее территории.
сирийские курды объединили свои усилия с российскими ВКС и борются вместе против ИГ.
- Турция враждует с курдами на своей территории и на территории всех сопредельных государств. Перспектива образования Курдистана на ее территории или любой другой для Турции непереносима. (Интересно, почему?)

12. Только результат этой провокации для Турции будет в любом случае НЕГАТИВНЫМ.

Турция потеряет права на Турецкий поток. (Это на руку Саудовской Аравии и Катару.)

Турция утратит расположение России и дружеские связи с ней. (-"-)

Турция потеряет Россию на своем торговом рынке. (Это косвенно отразится на турках в России и на их отношениях с россиянами.)

Турция потеряет всех туристов из России. (Это выгодно всем туристическим странам на Ближнем Востоке. Очень выгодно США - экономическая удавка надежней всех остальных).

Репутация Турции получила крутое изменение в мире: вместо страны, участницы коалиции США и НАТО, она стала страной, поддерживающей ТЕРРОРИСТОВ. Страной, которая действует глупо и непредсказуемо - это официальная версия. Неофициальная - это еще одна шавка, выполняющая заказы Хозяина даже в ущерб себе.

Репутация Турции, как самостоятельного государства, а тем более региональной державы влияния, уничтожена.

Удар расценивается как подлый и коварный удар в спину, потому что пилоты явно не ожидали атаки на себя. НЕ МОГЛИ ПОВЕРИТЬ. 

Турция лишается всех преимуществ хороших отношений с Россией. И выбирает сторону США - грязную политику войны всех против всех.

Беженцы из Сирии оказываются в сложном положении.

В худшем варианте Турция получит военный конфликт на своей границе. Выйти из этого конфликта победительницей у нее нет никаких шансов.

Турция ставит альянс в очень сложное положение. Поддержав Турцию, альянс еще раз подтвердит, что поддерживает ТЕРРОРИСТОВ.

Both pilots were shot dead in the air

As the two Russian pilots descended by parachute after the Su-24 jet was downed, both were shot dead by Turkmen forces, Reuters reports citing a deputy commander of a Turkmen brigade in Syria.
"Both of the pilots were dead on retrieval. Our comrades opened fire into the air and they died in the air," Alpaslan Celik, a deputy commander of a Syrian Turkmen brigade said.
He was speaking near the Syrian village of Yamadi, according to Reuters. Celik held what he said was a piece of a pilot's parachute.
However, reports have emerged the two pilots may be still alive. Ankara is working to secure their release from Syrian rebels, a Turkish government official told Reuters.
"Our units, who received the information that the two pilots were alive, are working to get them from opposition rebels safely," the official said.
A graphic video posted earlier on social media purported to show a Russian pilot lying on the ground surrounded by a group of men praising Allah.
The men reportedly regretted they hadn’t burned him on the spot.
The video was sent by a rebel group operating in the northwestern area of Syria, where groups including the Free Syrian Army are active but Islamic State has no known presence.
Jahed Ahmad, a representative of the 10th Brigade in the Coast, the rebel group that attacked the pilots, told AP that at least one of the Russian pilots was dead upon landing.
An additional protocol to the Geneva Convention strictly bans attacks on persons parachuting from an aircraft in distress.
According to the protocol, if the person in distress is not acting in a hostile manner, he is to be given the chance to surrender after reaching the ground.
A Russian Su-24 bomber was shot down by Turkish fighter jets near the Turkish-Syrian border on Tuesday.
Turkey said it was rightfully acting to defend its sovereignty as the warplane had violated its airspace and hadn’t responded to warnings.
Moscow has denied Turkey’s claims, saying its plane was downed in Syrian airspace, where Russia is conducting an air operation against Islamic State and other terrorists.
Vladimir Putin called Ankara’s actions “a stab in the back delivered by accomplices of the terrorists,” adding that it will have severe consequences for relations between Russia and Turkey.