1. The russian plane on a battle flight in Syria was shot down by a turkish destroyer F16 in the province of Latakia in the Syrian air space. The plane was struck from behind and below with no visual contact of the pilots.
2. Even if the russian bomber had touched the turkish border - it is no reason at all to strike it down forcefully. It is all a routine practice. Usually such plane is warned, escorted and warned again by special signals of the wings, giving pilots some mark of "breaking the line." In case of deep penetration into the territory of another country, the plane will be brought down to the ground by a team of destroyers. But not shot down. There is no need for that. There was no threat at all. The turkish authorities knew pretty well everything the plane was doing.
The turkish authorities claim that the plane had been warned audially 10 times over 5 minutes. That is nonsense and a lie. The plane in question could had been in the air space of Turkey (turning or coming out of a move) for a minute at best - actually for 17 seconds, according to americans. If the russian pilot of the bomber had been on line with his commander, he wouldn't have heard any warning at all. And in what language? Russian? Turkish? English? Audial warnings are not used in cases like that.
The latest results of objective surveillance of both Russian and Syrian military observants and air-defend forces confirmed that there were no any warning audio signals from turkish air-forces at all. And the plane had never touched the turkish border. And the turkish destroyer was actually in the air space of Syria.
The Turkish version of the flight.
There is also a special telephone line between coordinated commandment of Russian-Syrian forces and Turkey. Never ever been used.
The air forces of Israel are breaking the border line of Lebanon quite systematically to bomb Syrian governmental military äirports, never to be hit down by Lebanese destroyers. It is not the procedure.
3. The russian bomber had never actually crossed the air borders of Turkey. This is a confirmed fact now.
4. The bomber is very limited in quick manouvres and is an easy target.
5. Turkish destroyers routinely escort and observe the work of the russian bombers in the region of the Syrian-Turkish border. By expert opinion the bomber in question had been escorted and observed closely. More than that, all marks show that is was ambushed.
6. The Russian plane had been hit at the Syrian territory. This is unprecedented.
7. All this means only that the plane of the Russian Airforces had been hit deliberately.
A very expensive plane of no threat to Turkey. Both pilots (by the latest news not yet confirmed) were shot down by the local terrorists after catapulting from the plane. (One pilot shot down in the air after catapulting, one rescuer from the helicopter killed.)
8. This act is taken as a DIRECT ACT OF AGRESSION AGAINST RUSSIA AND SYRIA. Now Syria will have to (in the worst scenario) to fight against Turkey as an open supporter of the terrorists in Syria.
9. This puts Turkey in a very difficult position. It is not ready to fight financially. It doesn't have any exit from this situation. No explanations, no "sorry, mistakes", nothing of that can be used. Only sincere confession and begging for forgiveness with compensations. But to do that Erdogan has no means - human, political or financial. Erdogan is a political corpse. And Turkey is now openly on the side of the terrorists.
10. Americans have immediately distanced themselves from the incident, declaring that this is a matter of national initiative of Turkey and Turkey alone. It has nothing to do with the anti-terrorist operation and no blame can be pointed upon the US or the NATO forces of the coalition in Syria.
But Turkey is a NATO member. And the US and NATO commanders were informed according to the mutual memorandum about all moves of the russian air forces. They informed Turkey on the jet's whereabouts.
The USA declaration is a provocation and a suggested pretence for a war between Russia and Turkey. The situation is ideal for States, now they can again bomb whatever they choose and support whoever they prefer. The situation is complexed with all those "moderate butchers" and even "more moderate butchers", but also with questions of nationality - curds and turkmen (the syrian turks) as well as religious matters - shiias, christians, sunni, esides, alavites etc... Lovely!
11. There is a lot of reasons for this kind of provocation:
- there are lots of military groups in Syria supported by Turkey directly and indirectly - the Syrian turks (its radical part) is one of them; other groups in this territory are IGIL and JEBHAT AN-NUSRA (a filial of AL-KAIDA)
- the turkish oil-dealers are actively involved in illegal IGIL oil trading - the place of the Russian bomber hit down is one knot of the border paths to Turkey for oil containers and terrorists, going into Syria or to rest camps and to receive medical help into Turkey. This is a logistic centre of the terrorists for transporting arms, provision, money. Very important for Turkey.
The majority of the terrorists in this region of Syria are IGIL mercenaries from Russia (the North Caucases). According to the latest info one of the two russian helicopters searching for the pilots was destroyed by the local terrorists and the pilots were shot dead in the air after catapulting from the hit plane. (Still not confirmed.)
Is confirmed now: one pilot killed, the terrorists danced over his body, the other was rescued by a helicopter team - one helicopter was downed and one team member killed.
- the Russian bombers destroy highways and thousands of oiltrailers, cutting off channels of financing the IGIL and cutting Turkey off the cheap illigal oil and profits from the trade. Financial situation of Turkey is very complex and is hardened by millions of Syrian refugees.
- the kurds of Syria have consolidated their efforts with Russian and Syrian governmental forces to fight IGIL together
- Turkey hates and bombs syrian kurds on its own and on all the other soils. The perspective of forming a Kurdish state is unbearable for Turkey. (I wonder why?)
12. But the result of this low and disgusting provocation will be inevitably NEGATIVE for Turkey.
Turkey will lose its chance with the Turkey Stream (this is good for Saudites and Qatar, and Iran).
Turkey loses favorable approach from Russia and friendly ties with it.
Turkey loses Russia on the Turkish market. (This will boumerang upon turks in Russia and on their relations with russians). Turkey loses the Russian market.
Russia will consider restraining its gas deliveries to Turkey.
Turkey loses all its Russian tourists. (This is good for all the tourist countries in the Middle East and Northern Africa). The Foreign Ministry of RF has already declared bans on airtransport and tourist streams to Turkey. This is very good for the USA - economical strangulation of the partner is the most reliable one.
Reputation loss - more specifically - reputation change - instead of a country fighting TERRORISTS within the US and NATO coalition Turkey has transformed into a country, SUPPORTING TERRORISTS. Now it is a country, who acts stupidly, unjustly and unpredictably, being lying all this time to everybody - this is an oficial side of it. Unofficially we have another lapdog, obeying orders of the Master, even harming itself in the process.
The reputation of an independant state, not to speak of a regional state of influence, is gone, destroyed, vanished.
The hit is considered as a low stab in the back, as the russian pilots obviously didn't expect a full scale attack on themselves. COULDN'T BELIEVE IT.
Turkey loses all the benefits of good relations with Russia and chooses its side - the side of US, fighting all against all.
The Syrian refugees are now in a very difficult situation.
The worst scenario for Turkey will be an armed conflict on its border with no chance to win. But Russia has already declared that it will not be engaged in any armed conflict with Turkey.
This cruel act of Turkey has now placed the alliance into a very tricky position. Standing by Turkey NATO will prove once again to be supporting terrorists instead of fighting them.
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